07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

The goings on of courts
misfit
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby misfit » Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:23 pm

Nuall cocks a quizzical eyebrow. "The real threats?" He gestures towards a copy of Sadie's constitution. "You do not consider that to be a true threat? I was not present when she presented this, but am I correct in assuming that she merely threw them out with no warning? Do you realize what will happen if she does the same to the general populace? Wide scale civil unrest is the best that we could possibly hope for."

Nuall looks at the faces around the room and sighs. "Very well, allow me to explain my reasoning."

"First, Sadie arrived in Rebma for the first time as was appointed queen...yesterday, correct? She has had no time to meet the people, especially most of the powerful and influential ones, and establish any form of working relationship. Everyone is Rebma will currently see her as an outside and usurper that they have to tolerate because Dworkin has declared it so. The only support she has is Solten, who they will see as another outsider as he is not even of the same court, this aid of her's...Priscilla is it?...and Dworkin himself. But this document effective says that Dworkin's will has no weight in Rebma, so she is effectively discarding her greatest political strength. All she will have left is her own, and Solten's, physical strength and whatever powers of persuasion they may have."

"Second, from what I've seen in this document it will take time to implement all of her plans. The problem is, once the nobles and others with power see this it puts them on notice that sooner or later they will be stripped of their power and influence. They will be the social equals of any of the dock workers. Do any of you suppose that they will accept that loss of power and status easily? Whatever timetable Sadie may have for implementation, once this document becomes public it is tantamount to a declaration of war on the existing power structure. We can expect them to take...drastic...steps while they still have power and before Sadie can establish a power base. Those steps will likely include open rebellion and will most certainly include assassination attempts."

"A third point to consider: it is my understanding that a significant part of Rebma is underwater and that water-breathing inhabitants live there. She will have a difficult time enforcing her writ there. Those that dwell there can largely ignore her will unless she has the means to visit sufficient force upon them to force them to capitulate. Her opponents will know that and will have a reasonably secure stronghold to marshal their forces from at need."

"The next point to consider is the diversity of the population itself. I have yet to meet most of the different types that live there, and I sincerely doubt that Sadie has either. I do not claim to understand them well enough to predict how they will all respond, but I believe it to be safe enough to accept that those who are as powerful as humans will respond mostly as humans would. But what of those more powerful, like that dragon last night? Will he...it was a he, was it not?...take kindly to being told that he is now the equal of the scullery maids in the kitchen? I suspect that some of those who can travel to other shadows will do so instead to carve out a stronghold of their own. The others are likely to fight to protect their status and power...and I suspect in most cases that is how they normally behave. In a pack of dogs, they males will fight to determine who is the alpha. The same is true of most creatures, including we humans. I believe we can expect at least a few of them to directly attack Sadie as well."

"Social change can come slowly or violently, but it will always be at least one of the two. Sadie is planning to move very quickly to bring about major social changes. There will be violence, and she will have to answer it with violence. There is a grave danger that she could become the very tyrant she is trying to protect the people against. That would be a truly tragic fate for her and I would spare her that if we can."

"My parents sought to teach of military, social and governmental matters. I tried to avoid such learning, but it would seem that they were more effective in their endeavors than I was. Also, I am a gambler and I have been told that I have a good grasp of...what was that phrase Dennis used? ah yes...game theory. This leads me to conclude that if Sadie were to just send out criers to post this document right now, then by far the most likely outcome would be a full scale rebellion. I would expect at least one to plan to put Reuben on the throne instead as he is a known quantity to then, whether he was aware of the plot himself or not. I would predict there to be 3-5 assassination attempts...those numbers assuming of course that none succeed. The next most likely result would be the wide scale civil unrest that I spoke of earlier. The odds of this going successfully are so small as to be unworthy of notice."

"Now if she were to take time to get to know the people, establish a power base, and win some of the key players over to her cause she could most likely bring about most of the changes she is seeking here without too much distress. That will take a considerable amount of time, but it does seem quite possible. If she is not willing to spend the time to do it properly, she will do to us what we have been discussing doing to Chaos. We need to make her see reason on this point. Can I count on you to support me in this?"

(OCC: When I come back after an absence I don't sneak back in quietly, do I? :D )

Wyvern
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby Wyvern » Sun Mar 31, 2013 8:07 pm

"No, I don't consider that to be a true threat. Even if Sadie is foolish enough to send that out to the town criers today, the resulting upheaval will cost, at worst..." Alys thinks for a moment, "I'd guess no more than a several tens of thousands of deaths, almost all within the first few decades. And possibly much less - the worst case scenario there is if Odin or Legion acts to support such dissidents."

"Compared to unmaking large portions of reality, where casualties would be numbered in millions of worlds at a minimum, and could easily scale up to literally countless worlds... No, I don't consider Sadie's plans to be a true threat."

"That said - having to deal with such an insurrection would be inconvenient at best, and likely result in hard feelings from the general populace that would last at least a century. And, as with any large-scale distraction, it would reduce the odds of us noticing more dangerous problems. So, yes, I will support trying to convince Sadie to delay any public revelations of her plans."

"Of course, then the question becomes: what do we do? Have someone trump call her immediately after she's done walking the Pattern?"

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Joshua
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby Joshua » Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:09 pm

Morgana is busy arranging asylum for Mosh (2.0), as is Quin.

Darnell will decide to offer his thoughts. "I think she means well. I am sure if you explain to her a way to do this less violently, she will listen. I also don't think she understands how horrible nobles can be. Right Nuall?"

misfit
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby misfit » Wed Apr 10, 2013 9:12 pm

"That was indeed my thinking. I'm not saying that the goals are unworthy, or not all at least, but is the execution which worries me. If we are too busy keeping Rebma together as a means of protecting the Pattern, then we can't pay attention to threats elsewhere...and a civil war would most definitely leave the Pattern there vulnerable. And Amber is the portion of reality that we most need to worry about being unmade. If we lose Amber then we lose all. If this is to be a war between Order and Chaos, then we cannot afford to have Chaos loosed in our own home. We are too few and our enemies too numerous. We cannot squander our forces foolishly in an avoidable disaster. And what if, the Gods forbid, one of those assassination attempts should succeed? Can we afford to lose Sadie? Or Solten? Or worse yet, both?"

"I never desired this, but I am bound to the Pattern and must accept the consequences of that. I will defend the Pattern from any threat I can by any means that I am able to find. This has the potential to be a large chink in our metaphorical armor, and can be prevented if we act quickly."

Nuall looks down at the table, and then rolls his eyes upwards. "I know that is it still early in the morning, but Heather why did I let you talk me into giving up drinking?" Nuall sighs. "I for one need to find Sadie. If anyone would care to join me, any support would be appreciated."

Wyvern
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby Wyvern » Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:32 pm

"Unfortunately, I do have some other matters to take care of* - and I believe that Darnell is correct, and you won't need more than a rational explanation and perhaps some time for her to calm down beforehand. Still... I could send Tinder with you; that's nearly as strong a show of support, and he can get me relatively quickly should that prove necessary."

_____
* Ah, time. If I hadn't already (in OOC time) wandered off to talk to the mage guild, Alys would probably be going with you. Oops?

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Joshua
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby Joshua » Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:55 pm

(OOC: Well, SAdie is on the pattern at this point, which you do NOT want to interrupt... so, skip to other thread?)

Wyvern
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby Wyvern » Thu Apr 11, 2013 4:14 pm

(OOC: I'd imagine this would best be taken care of by an intermediate scene, possibly resolved off-camera with chat or PMs. If Nuall is leaving to find Sadie now, that doesn't fit with Sadie showing up ten+ minutes earlier in the trial thread than Nuall does, unless either 1: Nuall gets jumped by ninjas, or 2: whatever Nuall wanted to say to Sadie has been said before the trial thread started. And any ninjas competent enough to delay Nuall that long, deserve their own thread anyway.)

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Joshua
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby Joshua » Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:44 pm

(OOC: Or they missed each other... but yeah...)

misfit
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Re: 07.08c: The Loneliest Breakfast

Postby misfit » Sat Apr 13, 2013 8:50 pm

OCC We've also discussed that time can be a bit...non-linear...in Amber. Also, Nuall has had time to learn the whole lay of the land...he could have made a wrong turn. And the "ninjas" could be more petty social distractions than an actually physical annoyance.


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